Ok 4 days left until the Big Day. Time to resurrect the ol' poliblog.

My prediction: Kerry will win, 279-259. That's my conservative estimate. Right now I am feeling confident that he has more momentum and will pull out Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan, New Hampshire, and (gulp) Wisconsin. Every article I've read on new voter registration seems to be a positive sign.

But I am not so sure about Wisconsin. If he loses there it's 269-269.

Is it possible that all of the polls, in neglecting to account for newly registered voters, are being skewed towards Bush? Might Kerry win all of the swing states?

For anyone interested in how the latest electoral map is shaping up, check out http://realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/RCP_EC.html

Then there is the Florida can of worms. I hope we don't need Florida to win, but if we do (and by the by I am not saying we're going to lose Florida, I just would rather not depend on it because of the Jeb Bush/Kathleen Harris tag team), it's going to be another mess. They've already lost a ton of absentee ballots.